A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

摘要: Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes, agricultural production, and human society. Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting. The Chinese Tianshan Mountains (CTM) have a high climate sensitivity, rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming. In this study, we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset (1961–2014) and 24 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale. Based on this, we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends, dry–wet transitions (based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI)), and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961–2014. We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms (near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long-term (2081–2100)) relative to the historical period (1961–2014) under four shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014, and will also experience warming in the future (2021–2100). Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble (MME) from the CMIP6 GCMs. The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008, which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989. The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM. Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM. By the end of the 21st century, all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry–wet transitions. However, the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future, so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all. Additionally, the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing. This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.